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CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

    Ganesh R. Ghimire | Oak Ridge National Laboratory
    Shih-Chieh Kao | Oak Ridge National Laboratory
    Sudershan Gangrade | Oak Ridge National Laboratory
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Description

This dataset presents CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across approximately 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS, including hydropower dam locations. The methodology producing this dataset leverages CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs. The reach-level flood frequency and uncertainty estimates are derived using spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders under the stationarity assumption. For ease of the users, the dataset includes the projected change vector files as well as flood frequency and uncertainty estimates for hydropower dam locations in the CONUS. The non-stationarity assumption-based estimates are under preparation and will be updated in Version 1.1. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assets" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), and Ghimire et al. (2025). This dataset was originally published on 2025-11-05 and updated/expanded on 2026-09-03. See included README for additional information.

Funding Information

DOE Contract Number

AC05-00OR22725

Originating Research Organization

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization

Office of Critical Materials and Energy Innovation (CMEI) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O)

Project Identifier

ATM112; CLI190

Related Works

Details

Release Date

November 5, 2025

Subject

ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, GEOSCIENCES, HYDRO ENERGY, MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Keywords

CMIP6, SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment, Flood Frequency Analysis, Regional L-moment, Streamflow Projections, Dayflow, RAPID, DBCCA, RegCM, VIC, PRMS

Dataset

Dataset Type

ND Numeric Data

Software

Any type of NetCDF readers

Cite This Dataset:

Ghimire, G., Kao, S., Gangrade, S. (2025). CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.13139/OLCF/2575147.

Acknowledgements

This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the Advanced Scientific Computing Research programs in the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725.